Klaus Kondrup: Washington Wavers

Facing defeat is never easy. Especially, when you at all cost must look like you are winning.

Delicate diplomacy

‘The ball is now in Russia’s court.’ That was the message from Marco Rubio, USA’s top diplomat, this week. Talks has commenced between Washington and Moscow in Riyadh. Since then, Washington has been seeking common grounds with its allies and Kyiv. It started out well but quickly ended in a mess with tensions between The White House and Downing Street 10 after meetings between Trump, Macron, Starmer, and Zelensky ended in debacle less than two weeks ago. To give the signal that Washington is serious, it is imperative that The White House can be trusted to implement what is agreed with the Kremlin, should negotiations commence. Trust is a major issue. And now USA suggests a 30-days cease fire?? No dissembling of AFU army, no talk of denazification preceding the call for a cease fire? No sign that Washington can command the troops on the ground? Cease fire for 30 days? Really? Only the promise of no-NATO hanging in the air without a mention, otherwise nothing: ‘It is up to Russia, now,’ says Trump. Are they seriously saying that? Is it another empty propaganda stunt? Some kind of provocation? Everyone knows that Moscow has no appetite for a cease fire before an agreement has been reached. That was spelled out last time on December 19th 2024 by Putin himself. Washington has no way of pressurizing Moscow into a cease fire, so what is going on?

A face saving interview

Either Washington is seeking to sabotage the potential for reaching actual negotiations by using the dialogical space between the parties for signaling to western audiences that Moscow is not willing to make peace, or they are incompetent. Whether the one or the other, this is a major setback on the attempt to build trust between Washington and Moscow. What The White House has come up with is by and large the French position with a 30-days cease fire and European readiness to fill in as the USA withdraws. It is the lowest common denominator between Kyiv, Paris, London and Washington, and practically not much of an offer. Of course the Russian leader is not going to let himself be vulnerable to critique by stepping in to open talks on this proposal. The pundit hawks would prey on him in the friday night talkshows on TV for giving in to the enemies, so that they can get up on their knees and kill even more Russians; that will not play well with the mothers of the sons at war, besides it being plainly stupid. Kremlin’s response is a face saving exercise, seeking to keep talks with Washington alive, speaking about rare earth metals, praising Washingtons approach as rational while dissing the Europeans:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uar8KiIUJig

Frontline facts

I guess we all know how this will be played out in the western main media outlets: Russia will be accused of not wanting peace, because Kremlin rejects a cease fire. That is trivial. So is my general point, that propaganda can be a very efficient tool, but it cannot all by itself win wars. The situation on the ground is hanging on a cliffs edge with AFU conducting spectacular counter attacks at Shevchenko and Toretsk, while the cautious AFR are pushing forward with the aim of containing the line from the fortress in Kupyansk through Kramatorsk to Pokrovsk; a final battle where AFR encircles this line operationally, would be totally devastating, like losing one’s queen for a pawn in chess, and AFU must seek to avoid being overwhelmed throughout summer, but pressure is still mounting and manpower is a real issue. Press gangs are working 24/7. It is a year now since Avdiivka fell, and we concluded that collapse is immanent; it is still accelerating. To call the situation desperate is to put it mildly. Will The White House be able to keep its cool?

Klaus Kondrup posts regularly on the situation in Ukraine and other geopolitical focal points on Substack.